Food for Peace Program and
Population
Discussion:
One of the most fundamental aspects of the impact of population
growth on the political and economic well-being of the globe is its
relationship to food. Here the problem of the interrelationship of
population, national resources, environment, productivity and
political and economic stability come together when shortages of
this basic human need occur.
USDA projections indicate that the quantity of grain imports
needed by the LDCs in the 1980s will grow significantly, both in
overall and per capita terms. In addition, these countries will face
year-to-year fluctuations weather and other factors.
This is not to say that the LDCs need face starvation in the next
two decades, for the same projections indicate an even greater
increase in production of grains in the developed nations. It should
be pointed out, however, that these projections assume that such
major problems as the vast increase in the need for fresh water, the
ecological effects of the vast increase in the application of
fertilizer, pesticides, and irrigation, and the apparent adverse
trend in the global climate, are solved. At present, there are no
solutions to these problems in sight.
The major challenge will be to increase food production in the
LDCs themselves and to liberalize the system in which grain is
transferred commercially from producer to consumer countries. We
also see food aid as an important way of meeting part of the chronic
shortfall and emergency needs caused by year-to-year variation at
least through the end of this decade. Many outside experts predict
just such difficulties even if major efforts are undertaken to
expand world agricultural output, especially in the LDCs themselves
but also in the U.S. and in other major feed grain producers. In the
longer run, LDCs must both decrease population growth and increase
agricultural production significantly. At some point the "excess
capacity" of the food exporting countries will run out. Some
countries have already moved from a net food exporter to a net
importer of food.
There are major interagency studies now progressing in the food
area and this report cannot go deeply into this field. It can only
point to serious problems as they relate to population and suggest
minimum requirements and goals in the food area. In particular, we
believe that population growth may have very serious negative
consequences on food production in the LDCs including
over-expectations of the capacity of the land to produce,
downgrading the ecological economics of marginal areas, and
over-harvesting the seas. All of these conditions may affect the
viability of the world's economy and thereby its prospects for peace
and security.
Recommendations:
Since NSC/CIEP studies are already underway we refer the reader
to them. However the following, we believe, are minimum requirements
for any strategy which wishes to avoid instability and conflict
brought on by population growth and food scarcity:
(1) High priority for U.S. bilateral and multilateral LDC
Agricultural Assistance; including efforts by the LDCs to improve
food production and distribution with necessary institutional
adjustments and economic policies to stimulate efficient production.
This must include a significant increase in financial and technical
aid to promote more efficient production and distribution in the
LDCs.
(2) Development of national food stocks [Department of
Agriculture favors U.S. commercial interests holding any national
stocks in an international network of stockpiles] (including those
needed for emergency relief) within an internationally agreed
framework sufficient to provide an adequate level of world food
security;
(3) Expansion of production of the input elements of food
production (i.e., fertilizer, availability of water and high yield
seed stocks) and increased incentives for expanded agricultural
productivity. In this context a reduction in the real cost of energy
(especially fuel) either through expansion in availability through
new sources or decline in the relative price of oil or both would be
of great importance;
(4) Significant expansion of U.S. and other producer country food
crops within the context of a liberalized and efficient world trade
system that will assure food availability to the LDCs in case of
severe shortage. New international trade arrangements for
agricultural products, open enough to permit maximum production by
efficient producers and flexible enough to dampen wide price
fluctuations in years when weather conditions result in either
significant shortfalls or surpluses. We believe this objective can
be achieved by trade liberalization and an internationally
coordinated food reserve program without resorting to price-oriented
agreements, which have undesirable effects on both production and
distribution;
(5) The maintenance of an adequate food aid program with a
clearer focus on its use as a means to make up real food deficits,
pending the development of their own food resources, in countries
unable to feed themselves rather than as primarily an economic
development or foreign policy instrument; and
(6) A strengthened research effort, including long term, to
develop new seed and farming technologies, primarily to increase
yields but also to permit more extensive cultivation techniques,
particularly in LDCs. |